The race for the second governor of Busia County; county number 040 is already blazing. It has narrowed down to a battle of wits within the orange democratic movement pitying Dr.Paul Nyongesa Otuoma against Mama Florence Waingah Mutua both seasoned politicians.
Dr. Otuoma is a former two terms Member of Parliament for Funyula Constituency who dethroned former vice president Moody Awori in the hotly contested 2007 general election. He also served as a cabinet minister for ten years in different ministerial portfolios during President Mwai Kibaki’s regime. In the 2017 general election, Dr.Otuoma narrowly lost to the outgoing governor of Busia Hon. Sospeter Odeke Ojaamong both at the nominations and at the subsequent general election, narrowly coming in second in both. The fifty eight (58) year old is a veterinarian by training who holds a bachelors of veterinary medicine from the University of Nairobi where he also earned an MBA.
Hon. Mutua on the other hand is a two term Women Member of Parliament for Busia County sponsored by The Orange democratic movement. The fifty three (53) year old is also the ODM’s national deputy organizing secretary and the senior most ODM decision maker in Busia County. She is not only a graduate of master’s degree in project planning and management from the University of Nairobi but also holds a bachelor’s degree in Business administration from Kenya Methodist University.
Busia County has a population of over 351, 048 voters spread across 760 polling stations. The County has 7 sub-Counties, each acting like a constituency. They include: Constituency code 225 Teso north with over 49,833 voters spread across 118 polling stations, constituency code 226; Teso South with over 61,342 voters spread across 136 polling stations, code 227; Namable constituency with over 42, 259 voters spread across 86 polling station, code 228; Matayos constituency with over 56,841 voters spread across 117 polling stations, code 229; Butula constituency with over 57,685 voters spread across 120 polling stations, code 130; Funyula constituency with over 44,671 voters spread across 99 polling stations and code 131; Budalangi constituency with over 38,417 voters spread across 84 polling stations. Total: over 3351, 048 voters. (Statistics from IEBC voter register as at 2017 general elections). I have deliberately used the word over with the understanding that IEBC has done a continuous voter registration exercise since 2017 that could slightly alter the numbers upwards.
Busia is uniquely a cosmopolitan County made up of majority Luhya and Teso and the minority Luo, Kikuyu, Kisii and Kamba including the Baganda of eastern Uganda among other tribes.
Since the advent of devolution, Busia County has gravitated towards the orange democratic movement party. By and large, all indicators as at now communicate to an ODM governor in 2022. It is most likely that the contest for Busia County gubernatorial race shall be fought within the Orange democratic movement or to a larger extent, the Azimio la Umoja movement between Dr.Paul Nyongesa Otuoma and Mama Florence Waingah Mutua. On the road to that throne, the two candidates must navigate the following trajectory:
The tyranny of numbers between the majority tribes of Luhya and the Teso and their voting behavior against the swing vote of the minorities.
Out of the 351, 048 voters in the county, The Iteso vote account for over 111,175 votes attributed to 30% of the total votes while The Luhya vote accounts for 200,000 votes attributed to 60% of the total votes. The minority or rather the township cosmopolitan vote accounts for slightly over 45,000 votes attributed to 10% of the total votes. Each of these three groups have peculiar voting habits.
Traditionally, the Iteso vote as a block especially when they have their own candidate or a candidate sympathetic to their course. The Luhya vote is always fragmented along the Luhya sub-tribes of Abamarachi, Abakhayo, Abasamia and Abanyala as was witnessed in the 2017 general election. In 2017, Abamarachi of Butula voted for Hon.Ojaamong courtesy of Dr. Mulomi; his choice for deputy governor. The cosmopolitan vote, especially around township is essentially swayed by the promise a candidate makes towards safeguarding their business interests and coexistence. Already Dr. Otuoma and Mama Mutua have split among themselves the Luhya vote. This means that the Teso voters are the defacto king makers just in case they do not produce a strong candidate for the same position. Whomever shall be strategically friendlier to the Teso and consolidate their vote while securing at least 60% of the Luhya vote shall become the second governor of Busia.
Political party affiliation and loyalty to ODM and the emerging political dynamics created by Azimio la Umoja movement
Going by tradition, and this is hypothetical, the Orange democratic movement shall produce the second governor of Busia County. This is because other parties like ANC, FORD Kenya and UDA are yet to attract any credible pretenders to the throne. Now, be it as it may, the inside political dynamics of ODM portray a party that is keen on rewarding those who have been loyal to it. It is not forgotten that after the nominations in 2017, Dr.Paul Otuoma left the party and contested as an independent candidate against ODM almost costing it the gubernatorial position.
In the process, he left a vacuum that was filled by Mama Florence Mutua and her team. There has been wars to dethrone each other. However, going by the statement of Mr. Sifuna, the party secretary general a week ago while in Busia, it seems Mama Florence has the party firmly in her grip. She might not have pocketed ODM County level officials who always have a price tag for the highest bidder but she has the party’s two key assets; the grass root’s delegate’s support and the national office support as she validly flushes the loyalty card left right and center.
As it is, Mama Mutua has higher chances of defeating Dr.Paul Otuoma in the ODM primaries pants down. What therefore are Dr. Otuoma’s options? First, Dr. Otuoma should avoid boxing himself in the corner that ODM is taking him and jump ship early enough to an affiliate of Azimio la Umoja movement, entrench himself in the affiliate and in the community. It could be easier for him to beat Mama Florence at the main election while in an affiliate of Azimio la Umoja movement unlike at the ODM primaries. Secondly, he could still bid as an independent just as he did in 2017 against Ojaamong.
The money factor:
This will be a huge determinant of the elections. It is expensive to run a campaign across the vast county. Dr. Otuoma having been in the cold for five years and his aloofness on the ground is sending wrong signals to the electorates of a candidate that is not prepared for the grueling financial requirements of the campaign. The financing environment and context he enjoyed in 2017 has metamophosized against him especially his known gate keepers, the financial movers and shakers of the county with interests in businesses and County contractors who are keen on someone who can safeguard them and their interests with the exit of Ojaamong.
To navigate this huddle, Dr.Otuoma will need to have a wealthy running mate to supplement his own budget and win the ODM nominations to loop in financiers who are not yet sure of his ticket under ODM back into his fold. On the other hand, Mama Mutua seems to have mobilized resources adequately given his strategic visibility on the ground. Seemingly, she has used the opportunities at his disposal as the County Women Member of Parliament. She is rigorously tapping into the ODM party campaign opportunities to mobilize and she is creating a personality attraction to gatekeepers, the financial movers and shakers of the County, contractors, opinion makers and business community that view her as a safer space for their interest in the post Ojaamong political era unlike Dr. Otuoma. When reached for comment, Mama Mutua responded: “I am ready emotionally, physically and financially to bring this home.” My attempt to reach Dr. Otuoma for his comments on his financial preparedness did not bare fruits.
The running mate factor:
This is a humongous headache for both front runners. The choice of a running mate has to put in perspective the sub-tribe issue, the ability of the running mate to mobilize resources, the amount of influence the running mate may wield not only in his sub tribe but also his or her acceptability across the county. As the narrative on running mates has been gaining ground, the aspect of 2/3 gender rule has been gaining traction too. Discussions are that Mama Mutua, a female must find a male running mate while Dr.Paul Otuoma, a male, must run with a female deputy governor. The local civil society organizations who so far have created a credible voice and platform on matters governance in the County strongly favor this narrative. It is easier for Mama Mutua to have a male running mate than it is for Dr. Otuoma to have a female running mate.
The other headache is the negotiations between the Luhya dominated sub counties (Nambale, Matayos, Butula, Funyula and Budalangi) in the power sharing equation. Butula has enjoyed the powers, privileges and entitlements of a deputy governor for ten years running tied to the hip with the Teso. Samia has occupied the speaker’s office for ten years uninterrupted. Matayos has enjoyed the senate position too for ten years.
A delicate decision to persuade and dissuade some of this areas to give and take around the positions requires a tricky balancing act. Any aggrieved region can easily shift their allegiance to an opponent thereby swaying the pendulum and critically hurting either candidate’s chances
Credible sources indicate that Dr.Otuoma already has a running mate from Nambale and would wish to trade the speaker’s position with Butula. It is said that he is dangling the senate position to the Teso and the leader of majority at the county assembly with Bunyala while Matayos gets the reserve of plum executive positions at the County.
Mama Mutua has remained tight lipped on her choice of running mate choosing to directly engage voters at the grassroots’ level. However, the whispering bird intimates that she is trading the deputy governor’s position with the Teso, The senate position with the Bakhayo in Nambale, the speaker with the Samia in Funyula, the leader of majority with Matayos and plum cabinet positions in her government with Budalangi.
However, reached for comment on ongoing power sharing discussions, Mama Mutua said: “I am yet to start discussions on power distribution and forming of government. I have only managed to meet Bunyala professionals to discuss their bare minimums. I will be meeting many more interest groups in January 2022 to build on this discussions”. She concluded.
Whomever gets the inclusion equation right will have a head start. Negotiations, counter negotiations and give and takes. This arrangement will be highly punctured by post 2027 or 2032 ambitions. Some of the people who want to occupy the positions on offer also have ambitions to occupy the gubernatorial throne. As such, they will make the compromise harder than it need be. The context of Busia County shall always be that of building coalitions and creating consensus.
The incumbency factor:
In whose hands are we safe? The incumbent Ojaamong and his lieutenants seem to be asking. The history between Dr. Otuoma and Hon. Ojaamong isn’t good. Those around Ojaamong who safeguarded his power and domesticated it and did business with his government for ten (10) years have no trust in Dr. Otuoma. They all need safety, continuity and transition.
Despite the fact that Hon.Ojaamong is exiting the stage, he still has interests that need to be safeguarded. It is rumored that some of these interest could be related to accountability or lack thereof accountability in the way he has been managing the county. Perhaps, this may work for or against both Dr.Paul Otuoma and Mama Mutua.
However, the incumbent and his generals view Mama Mutua as a safe pair of hands for their safety, continuity or peaceful transition towards survival with their loot. The generals include the gate keepers as I said, County contractors, opinion makers, business moguls and the county financial movers and shakers who time and again came through and bailed the county financially when the county got embarrassingly broke. This is a position that compromises Mama Mutua’s credibility.
“Many interest groups view me as a safe pair of hands not because I will protect their loot or encourage looting but because I will ensure peace and stability for businesses to thrive. I am the safer hands for the minorities and the marginalized because I am neutral and clan less so am devoid of favoritism” said Hon.Mutua.
Above all, the incumbent still wields a lot of power in his Teso community. In fact, he is rumored to be warming up for a parliamentary seat in one of the constituencies of Teso. He still is a force to reckon with and a gate keeper of immense influence of political power and financial abilities. Whomever befriends him and provides a safe landing for him and his foot solders shall have the doors of Teso open to them.
The campaign strategy employed by the two candidates:
Dr. Paul Otuoma is known for an abrasive campaign style, forceful and podium oriented. In fact, some voters view him as a violent person given a few incidences of violence that occurred in the year 2017. During his tenure as Funyula MP, he majorly mobilized around a strong politically party ideology, strong financial muscle, propaganda and gate keepers to gain entry into his opponents’ strongholds and sector-based meetings. He is also a good mobilizer and a people’s person.
On the other hand, Mama Mutua has espoused a shrewd grassroots based campaigner, meeting strategic teams among her key voter demographics that is women and youth. She has a strong mainstream and social media presence too. She has evolved into an aggressive community mobilizer with a brutal surgical spirit of precision piercing through from one village to the other. She has remained relevant at the grassroots and at the National level and even in her parent political party.
Perhaps this election need be won by the best planner, mobilizer, negotiator and a candidate with the message that will act as an attraction not only for those with fears and apprehensions about the pain that they have faced with the current regime and the fear of the unknown from the front runners to the throne but also the promise each candidate is building for the future of Busia County.
Orange democratic movement is at the center of this strategy. However, the emergency of Azimio la Umoja has thrown a spanner into the works. Will the voters of Busia look at the candidates through the micro lens of ODM or with a macro lens of Azimio la Umoja movement? Beneath each of this strategies, money is the heart beat of all strategies.
It must however be made clear that an attempt at the use of the strategy of a message of exclusion against Mama Mutua based on her perceived tribe is a non-issue that is not gaining traction in Busia County. Statistically, Busia County voters are more conscious. They have voted Women before from Prof.Julia Ojiambo to Prof.Mango to Mama Mary Emase and now Mama Mutua. Voters want a leader. If Mama Mutua was voted in as a women MP and performed, she can equally be a governor and perform.
The tired and moribund arguments along tribe, sex, gender and age are socially incorrect and must be admonished at every opportunity they try to bud from their mentally dilapidated constructors.
County financial shakers and movers mostly contractors and service providers:
This group need a safety landing. They have done businesses with Ojaamong, some in the right way, some in a very awful way. They need continuity. They need their interests secured. They are the cartels of Busia County. Well known and connected to the political class. This are the system of government in Busia County. Individuals or institutions that sometimes lend money to the county. They wield massive influence both inside and outside government.
We cannot simply wish away this cartels because it is a deeply ingrained system. The candidate this cartels will align themselves with will carry the day. The question is, between Dr.Otuoma and Mama Mutua, in whose hands are this cartels safe? Who between the two candidates is bold enough to dismantle this cartels? Who will either replace the existing cartels with their own cartels or streamline governance and service provision and development in Busia County? The voters must be conscious enough to evaluate this two candidates. Dr. Otuoma must be evaluated based on his record as a member of parliament for Funyula while Mama Mutua must be evaluated based on her record as County Women MP. Their demonstrated abilities in the past must inform present and future projections. The civil society must be active in this evaluation and provide voters with credible information to enable them make choices.
The burden of the ghosts of Dr.Otuoma:
Each of the two candidates have their own burdens. It is just that Dr.Otuoma’s are more profiled than Mama Mutua’s. However, it is time the chicken are returning home to roost. The burden of the ghosts of Otuoma while as a member of parliament for Funyula constituency and his campaign in 2017 for the position of Governor are still alive. There are wounds that need to be cured. I tend to think that Dr.Otuoma isn’t a dirty person as it is portrayed but again, the people around him have created a very abrasive and violent persona of him that scares some people.
He might need to sanitize his networks and the faces around him. I do not have the moral authority to judge him but again, it is an opinion that he needs to listen to and act on. I have interacted with him directly. He is sociable, a giver and cheerful classless person bubbling with life. There are however some people around him that are naturally scary. The Teso still feel insecure with him.
For Mama, since I am yet to interface with him, I have very little to discern about her character, especially her past ghosts. I will leave that for another day.
Voting demographics especially the youth and women vote factor:
Men voters are not cheerful about the forthcoming general elections in Busia County. Women and youth are. Women and youth form the largest voting demographic in Busia County. Now, who among the two candidates cheers them up? Primarily, Dr. Otuoma has both the male vote because by nature, men are still bigoted and a section of the youth voters while Mama Mutua primarily has women voters and a section of the youth vote too. Dr. Otuoma may need to cheer up the male voters to consolidate his traditional voter basket while Mama Mutua may need to break the bigotry ceilings to secure the male vote.
Interests of community gate keepers including members of parliament, MCA’s and aspirants at all level in the entire county:
Members of parliament of all the seven (7) constituencies that form Busia County and the serving members of county assembly have huge influence on the outcome of the gubernatorial outcome both at the nomination level and at the general election. They command a huge following in their respective constituencies and wards, control resources, influence gate keepers and have a voice among party delegates.
Equally, aspirants that seek to displace serving leaders may align themselves to either side or shape the outcome of the race. Also, service providers and contractors at the constituency and ward level will decide the race either directly or indirectly based on interest.
Political dynamics and coalitions at the National level.
The political landscape at the National level between now and February will be a strong indicator of how voter patterns shall unfold in most counties Busia included. As it is, the competition is between two mosaics-Azimio la Umoja movement and UDA. Whichever formation outwits the other latest February 2022 shall influence formations in many a counties. It is in doubt that OKA will transform into a formidable outfit to challenge ODM and UDA. The echoes of Azimio la Umoja movement at Kasarani have already unsettled the status quo. The movement will certainly attract many parties with retained autonomy but focus shall be at enriching the presidential race. Raila Odinga has created space for inclusivity in Azimio la Umoja while at the same time indicating to all and sundry that they can be under one umbrella at the Presidential level but chase different interests with different parties at the other electable positions. This in a way might puncture ODM as a party.
In conclusion, the second governor of Busia must navigate the eleven (11) point trajectory above towards the throne. It does not mean that other fringe parties with other fringe gubernatorial candidates aren’t or may not arise. There are and they still will emerge as the political environment shapes up. The subject of my trajectory were the two established front runners.